Effects Of Climate Change On Vietnamese Agriculture Environmental Sciences Essay

Effects Of Climate Change On Vietnamese Agriculture Environmental Sciences Essay In the last decade, an overwhelming consensus has emerged among the worlds most reputable climate scientists that the world has entered a period of rapid global climate change, much of which is accountable to anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions (NSAC 2009). The agreement is demonstrated in the 1996 report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), an international body of leading natural and social scientists sponsored by the United Nations Environment Programme and the World Meteorological Organization. According to the panels report, an equivalent doubling of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration will force a rise in global average surface temperature of 1.0 to 3.5 degrees Celsius by 2100. It will result in an increase of sea level by 19 to 59 cm. Because a warmer atmosphere holds more water vapor, average precipitation also will go up as much 10 to 15 percent (IPCC 2007). Agriculture is highly sensitive to climate variability and weather extremes, such as droughts, floods and severe storms. Even warmer climate may give positive effects on food production, the increased potential for droughts, floods and heat waves will pose challenges for farmers. Global climate change is also expected to impact agriculture by causing shifts in precipitation, soil quality, pest regimes, and seasonal growth patterns (NSAC 2009). The exact nature and degree of these changes for any given region will be difficult to predict. CASE OF VIETNAM Situated in South East Asia in the Indochinese Peninsula, Vietnam territory is lasting from 8Â °15 to 23Â °22 latitude and between 102Â °8 to 109Â °30 longitude (ADPC 2003). It has 329,314 sq. km of natural area, in which 7,348.5 thousand hectares (22.2 percent) is arable land, with population about 83 millions (WHO). Viet Nam lies in the region of tropical monsoon climate with a high temperature. The average temperature varies between 21Â °C and 27Â °C, rainfall volume of 1800-2000 mm/year and is not evenly distributed among the months of the year (Tran 2009). Versatile and various climates of the regions create a variety of vegetation and domestic animals which originated in the temperate, sub-tropical and tropical regions. Being an agricultural country, 75 percent of Vietnamese labor-force is engaged in agriculture, forestry, and fisheries. This sector contributes roughly 20 percent to the GDP. The output value structure of agriculture, forestry and fisheries was 77 percent, 4 percent and 19 percent, respectively (Tran 2009). Vietnam is likely one of the most vulnerable countries in the world to climate change, because of its geographical location (Oxfam 2008). During the last 50 years, Viet Nams annual average surface temperature has increased by approximately 0.50 0.70 C, while the sea level along its coastline has risen by approximately 20 cm (ISPONRE 2009). The El-Nino and La-Nina phenomena have caused increasingly adverse impacts to Viet Nam. Changes in climate can have serious implications for economic development, especially in the agricultural sector, due to its direct exposure to and dependence on weather and other natural conditions. Studies for the Southeast Asian region show that climate change could lower agricultural productivity 2-15 percent in Vietnam (Bingxin et al. 2009). It is very likely that global warming is leading to an increase in weather extremes like heat waves and heavy rainfall. Droughts will occur more often, and that tropical cyclones (typhoons and hurricanes) will become more intense. Vietnam has always been suffering from extreme weather events and is struck by typhoons annually. Strong winds and sea surges cause death and destruction along the narrow and low-lying coastal area, while heavy rains hit the mountainous hinterland and river deltas with floods and landslides (Vietnam Red Cross 2007). For example, the river flood in Mekong Delta in 2000 killed 548 people; it flooded and damaged 401,342 ha of rice fields. An estimated loss of this flood is about 250 million USD (Chaudhry Ruysschaert 2007). The peak occurrence for typhoon landfalls has been during the month of October in the Central region and November in the South. A partial explanation of this lies in the sea surface temperatures (SSTs), which decrease later in the season. T yphoons are generated where SSTs are 26 Â °C or above, and by September, this is only found in those ocean areas further south where the SST remains around 25-28 Â °C throughout the year (ADPC 2003). Climate change may lead to an increase in sea surface temperatures in higher latitudes and a resulting increase of typhoon activity in North Vietnam. An increase of extreme events, both in intensity and duration, will be the most catastrophic preventing the agriculture development. Flood damage is expected to be aggravated because of a predicted increase in daily rainfall of 12 19% by 2070. In other times of the year, an increase in evaporation and the variation in rainfall will intensify drought problems about 3 percent in coastal zones and 8 percent in inland areas by 2070 (Chaudhry Ruysschaert 2007). Climate change impacts on agriculture are also channeled through changes in temperature. According to the third assessment report of IPCC, the temperature in this century will increase by 4-50 C. The International Rice Research Institute (IRRI) modeler determined that, as a general rule, yield of rice will decrease by 0.5 ton per hectare for every 10C increase in growing seasonal minimum temperature (Javellana 2007). According to the medium emissions scenario, the average temperature is expected to increase by nearly 2Â °C in the southern regions of Viet Nam and up to 2.8Â °C in the northern regions by 2100. However, in the high emissions scenario this could be as much as 3.6Â °C in the North Central Coast region (United Nation 2009). So, it is predicted that yields of summer rice will decrease by 3 6% by 2070 when compared to the 1960-1998 period. The impact on spring rice may be more serious, especially in the north where yields are expected to decrease by 17% (Chaudhry Ruyssc haert 2007). The evapotranspiration rate will also increase due to increasing temperature, depicted in figure 1 2. Rainfall in the dry season will decrease by 2070 in Central parts of Viet Nam and droughts would occur more frequently, because rainfall would be concentrated in the rainy season (WHO). Figure 1: The projected change of mean daily maximum temperature since 1980s to 2070s (Le 2010) Figure 2: The projected change of mean daily minimum temperature since 1980s to 2070s (Le 2010) Climate also creates a shift in amount and pattern of precipitation. It will affect hydrology and runoff, which will alter the availability of water for irrigation and other uses. The projected runoff changes for the two major rivers from three organizations show different trends. In the Red River, the IPSL scenarios show decreased wet-season flow. GISS and MONRE projections show increased dry season flow. In Mekong River, major flow reduces under IPSL projection, depicted in figure 3 (Ringler 2010). Significant rice yield decline is observed in all scenarios, ranging from 4.2 percent in MONRE-2030 to 12.5 percent in IPSL-2030. The impact is especially large in the Central Highlands and the northern zones, highlighting the enlarged gaps in food supply in these regions. Although the impact of climate change is relatively moderate in the major rice-producing region of the Mekong River Delta, the average rice yield is projected to drop by 1.4-8.3 percent by 2030 (Bingxin et al. 2010). Figure 3: Percentage of Basin Runoff Changes (Ringler 2010) Besides increasing average temperature, global warming also raises the sea water level which has resulted in salt-water-invasion and land loss. A recent study on the potential impacts of sea level rise in 84 developing countries suggested that Vietnam would rank among the top 5 affected countries. About 43 million Vietnamese or about 55% of the countrys population are living in vulnerable low elevation coastal zones (LECZ) (38 % of Vietnams urban population) (Waibel 2008). In Vietnam, the sea level has risen between 2.5 to 3.0 cm per decade in the last 50 years, but with regional variations (Oxfam 2008). According to ADPC report, sea levels may increase by 9 cm in 2010, 33 cm in 2050, 45 cm in 2070, and 1 meter in 2100 (ADPC 2003). If sea level rises 1 meter, a national potential land loss is predicted of 12% which will expose about 17.1 million people or 23.1 % of the population (Schaefer 2002). The Mekong River Delta will be the most affected region with 1.77 million ha of saline l and, accounting for 45 percent of the land (Chaudhry Ruysschaert 2007). Land loss and sea water invasion in the Mekong River Delta and parts of the Red River Delta, which are the most important agricultural areas in Vietnam, will cause serious risks to farmers as well as agricultural exports, and possibly to national food security. In summary, climate change is a very real threat to Vietnamese socio-economical development. Higher temperatures, the rising of sea water level and extreme weather events will all have significant impacts across the nation. However, the concept of climate change and its effects are just well known by experts and management agencies. Dealing with the serious implications of climate change will be a major challenge for Vietnam in the next decades.

Narrative - Life with Escher :: Personal Narrative Essays

Narrative - Life with Escher If you were to diagram my life, it would look very much like a drawing of Escher. Sometimes I feel like I'm the hand that's drawing a hand that's drawing itself. Other times I feel like I'm locked in one of those inescapable paradox cages. But most of all, I feel like I'm on the ever-ascending stairway that never goes anywhere. Life's canvas was not designed to be painted by human hands. Constrained by the limitations of space and time, crippled by the human inability to see the entire painting at once, and gifted with an uncanny lack of judgement, I smear and smudge what I cannot go back and fix. At the same time, I worked hard to render my own image impeccably clear without the faintest idea of who I really was or the realization that I was constantly in flux, changing as often as a lonely flower bends before the force of the wind. Once I began to find outward stasis, my inward person grieved that I was not in the end what I wanted to be at the beginning. My attempts were futile. I then looked to the Maker of the canvas and the Master Painter to draw something more perfect, more beautiful upon my heart and frame. But do I put down the brush and lay aside our pencils? No. I stupidly scribble all over the masterpiece of my Creator. Even if He asks me to stop (I only hear him if I haven't destroyed the ears He painted in) I stubbornly confound His every stroke. Worse, I think I made an improvement. My life is also like Escher's paradox cage. This cage is of my own drawing. I thought I was building a palace for myself, but it restricted my movement. My own creation bound me, kept me from following the loving words of the Master Painter. He erased it for me once, but I was dumb enough to paint it back into existence. The funny thing, of course, is that it's just like the paradox cage. It doesn't really keep me inside. I just think it does. From my perspective, I have the illusion that it's an impregnable fortress when it's only a fake facade that need hold no one in, rendered so by the Master's nail-pierced hands. In the end, I choose to stay inside, though if I listened close, I'd hear the words of the Painter, guiding me through the illusion and onward in my life.

Architectural Project

Parliamentary buildings are always meant to attract different people meaning that the grander the structure, the stronger the public and national interest and reaction to them.   These buildings normally reflect the tradition and stability showing that they portray the image or the commanding presence of the state (Daniel, 1995).The parliamentary buildings are also known to provide ideals of national identity and pride of a given state showing its strength.   Splendor and command, even majesty is always shown in the grandest of parliamentary buildings especially those in America in the nineteenth century.The Norman Foster New German parliament is a project of architecture since it has developed after destruction of many parliamentary buildings.   Attention was first devoted to German development, both in regard to the Bundestag building in Berlin (Michael, 1998).The Reichstag building is historical known for its richness in sensitive historical and political associations.  Ã‚   These buildings have raised some questions of national symbols, questions of the European traditions and democratic aspiration of the newly reunited Germany.This why there has been debates on whether the new parliament building is something to do with politics or architecture.   But in the real sense it is believed to be an architectural project following the changes that have been experienced in the field of architecture since early ages in the building and rebuilding of the parliament. (Dieter, 2003).Early architectural changes began from year 1949 – 1971 following reunification of Germany.   They started rebuilding projects and expanding the parliament in Bonn.   Architectural changes were undertaken from 1949 by a leading architect of the day by the name Haris Schwippert. He laid down a new chamber for the Bundestag which was completed for a short while.The project was made up of glass showing that they were a trademark of German post-war architectural style.   Several small developments existed to the parliament buildings site by 1969 when a large multi-storey building was erected to accommodate members and other services.   The building consisted of 30 storeys and was a notable landmark in Bonn region since it could be seen from Rhine.Towards the end of 1969 the federal cabinet ordered a stop to the adhoc building programs of the government in Bonn (Stephen, 2005).   The cabinet then formed a commission to look at a wider town planning implications of government office and parliamentary accommodation.Restructuring of the town and new buildings was an architectural concern in the country.   The parliament new building was to contain office blocks for government, child care facilities, an international conference center, new buildings for Bundestage, and the bundestrat and finally a hotel with apartment.All these led to a lot of complications and confusions.   This forced the different architectural firms to do some projects in co llaboration with other firms. This led to further development in the redesigning of the Bonn parliamentary building from 1971 – 1992. (Foster, 2000).The architectural firms made a lot of restructural challenges, arrangements and consultation with the concerned citizens.   The revised plan was then announced or declared in the December 1978.   Further architectural competitions were experienced by this time.In1983 another complication emerged when it was found out that the fabric of the main chamber (plenarsaal) was seriously impaired. This required the parliament building to be demolished as it could not be re-built a according to the architectural findings. Various experts were called for advice and in the upshot it emerged that preservation of the existing building in its framework would greatly increase expenditure because of its unsuitable nature.The decision to build new parliamentary building was finally made after along discussion that did not want the building to be demolished.   Many stakeholders wanted the only affected chamber to be rebuilt (Corola, 2004).   However the demolition of the new chamber succeeded since the state government had limited power to intervene in matters affecting the federal parliament.The rebuilding of the chamber included other ancillary facilities adjacent to it meaning that the project was expected to be wider than just the chamber it self. (Jaeger, 1999).

Communication Theory The Agenda Setting Theory - 1326 Words

Communication Theory Case Study Vidya Naidoo 5073 Communication Design Theory - Assignment Two Introduction: In this case study I will be analysing the Agenda Setting Theory of Communication proposed by Maxwell McCombs and Donald L. Shaw in 1972 in relation to the Cosmopolitan Australia magazine cover, Katy Perry issue 2014. Analysis of communication theory: The agenda setting theory by Maxwell McCombs and Donald Shaw states that the ideas of the public in the modern world are constructed by the media’s agenda. This may be through television, radio, campaigns and magazines. The basic notions of this theory are: 1) Media uses objects or issues to influence people about what they should think about 2) Priming, proposing ideas and values to be judged in a certain way. Media content will skew time and space on certain issues to make them more or less vivid. This is especially seen in with editors in journalism and more so with video editing seen in television. The press and media do not reflect reality, they filter and shape it. 3) Framing, process of selective control of how the overall image of a story or issue is produced 4) Media concentration on certain issues lead to the public perceiving these issues as most urgent and important 5) Gate keeping, the control of content distributed and discussed in the media â€Å"In choosing and displaying news, editors, newsroom staff and broadcasters play an important part in shaping political reality. 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